Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Pretty good day except for my natgas long
Today was pretty good in terms of trading results. I made a couple of trades on crude oil and one each on euro and gold. All of them were winners. My only loser was a t-notes short trade made at the beginning of the pit session that ended up losing me 11 ticks. I was able to make some of that loss back later with a long trade that netted me 4 ticks. So, all in all, a good day. The only dark spot on this otherwise ideal day was that my natural gas long trade (opened yesterday at 2.580) dropped even more touching a low of 2.44 at one point during the session. I have probably jumped the gun too quickly again on natgas yesterday thinking a bounce to higher levels was imminent. My "panic stop" is placed at the 2.38 level which would generate a $4000 loss should it gets triggered. At this point I am not looking to profit from that trade but only to get my capital back (maybe tomorrow) given a chance. I'll soon find out. Net result for today +$1182 trading 2 contracts (commissions included). Details below.
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It's your money, but I just don't get it sometimes. There's absolutely no reason for a futures day trader to hold overnight and risk a $4000 loss, esp. one whose profile on intraday winners is more in the nickels, dimes and quarters per trade category (i.e., by tick count on the winners).
ReplyDeleteDon't you see a risk profile problem here? You can't consistently hold onto a CL intraday trade for more than 20 ticks yet you'll hold an NG overnight with a disaster stop???
The room for improvement in your trading without adding downside risk is to get better at letting some of your CL trades run longer. You're awfully stingy on those winners when it's just about the best performing contract on the planet day-in and day-out from a volatility standpoint.
SteveH
I agree Steve concerning holding crude trades longer but changing habits is sometimes difficult.
DeleteSteve, a recurring characteristic among traders who dont have an edge, go for extreme risk:reward ratios. This provides a false sense of profitability until the odds catch up & the house of cards caves in. Usually they'll do somthing like risking 2 pts for 10 pt winner. He does the exact opposite, day after day of small wins followed by a catastrophic loss every few weeks. But the resulting P/L ends the same.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure what catastrophic loss you are talking about here. Show me one here on this blog
DeleteI think what TradeFutures does is glorify is his small gains and hide his big losses.That is his recurring theme.If you observe,it was with a swing CL before and now he is doing the same thing with Natural gas.If you take small profits,you should also take small lossses and exit when the trade goes against you.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much Mr. "anonymous" for your gratuitous accusation. Normally, I would not bother replying to your comment but I will make an exception this time.
ReplyDelete1) to quote you: "what TradeFutures does is glorify his small gains..." as far as I know I am not glorifying my "small" gains I am just enumerating them. Assuming you have any, how would you treat your small gains dear anonymous?
2)to quote you again: "hide his big losses.That is his recurring theme.If you observe,it was with a swing CL before..." so you are referring to that December 23rd trade that was abundantly commented here. Dear anonymous what do you make of the December 28th crude oil gain of $7377 that is not accounted for in my net results. Will you accuse me of hiding my big winners too?
3)from you: "and now he is doing the same thing with Natural gas.." for the last 2 days I have reported on the state of that losing trade (on paper for now). Hiding? You must be kidding.
4) and finally this beautiful pearl of wisdom from you: "If you take small profits,you should also take small lossses and exit when the trade goes against you". Gee, thanks for this insightful suggestion. I would not have thought about that without you.